France is isolated… But from whom?
(BRUSSELS2 to Vilnius) The slogan of "Isolated France" — reported in some French media until yesterday — is a decoy. And this lure should wear off in a few hours. If there is isolation, it is (perhaps) that of Westerners in the world, facing emerging countries and others (*). But within the Western or European camp, France is not alone. Far from there. In political terms, it would rather be seen as a pioneer or "first ally", or even a follower. Even if in military terms, no one ventures to follow. A configuration difficult to understand as it has been so rare since... La Fayette!
Gathering time has come
The publication by the White House on the sidelines of the G20 of a dozen countries (Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom) gave a clear signal. This declaration condemns the use of chemical weapons in Syria, claims a strong resolution of the United Nations Security Council” but above all affirms its support for the efforts undertaken by the United States and other countries to strengthen the ban on the use of chemical weapons ". An ambiguous sentence which allows, without quoting it, to affirm support for military action.
It's up to other Europeans to decide
The statement ends with a sentence calling on Europeans to endorse this statement (*). This is the whole point of this morning's meeting in Vilnius. Countries are preparing to follow suit if asked. Denmark, for example, is ready to say 'yes', as Danish Minister Willy Sovndal confirmed to me last night (Fri 6 Sept) during an informal conversation. The whole question now is to know the sequence of this gathering and its motivation. It is out of the question for the Europeans to cut corners. All the ministers I have interviewed insist on one point: the way of the UN is essential.
A question of legitimacy and credibility
We must, at the very least, wait for the report of the UN inspectors and try to obtain an international resolution. A question of " credibility "explains a minister, "of legitimacy “, insists another. Pressures to expedite the reporting schedule are “ felt negativelye” in New York. Ban Ki Moon insists on the importance of having a report that has scientific value, substantiated says a good connoisseur of the United Nations. The memory of Iraq is in everyone's mind. " We have to try to get a Security Council resolution. We know very well that the Russians and the Chinese will block it. But this recourse must be exhausted. » And after ? " We'll see. Let's not skip the steps “, specifies a European minister. " Do not allow criticism ". It is also a way of making the Russians and the Chinese face up to their responsibilities.
At the first shot
Behind this "we'll see", there are a number of nuances not only between European countries but also within each government. Everyone tries to fix a moving line. Hence the silence of some, the confused or contradictory remarks of others. But a trend is emerging. Few European countries seem ready to follow and participate in military strikes. But no European seems ready to condemn them. The weight placed in the balance of the Americans will weaken the most undecided or the most reluctant. The last bastion of reluctance seems to be on the side of the "usual suspects" - summarizes one interlocutor: the Nordic countries, Austria, Ireland... At the first shot, “everyone will line up behind the Americans “says another...
Kerry in the countryside
The arrival of John Kerry in the Foreign Ministers' meeting room this morning in Vilnius was symptomatic. Everyone, placed wisely in his place, waited to be able to greet him. A bit like in an election campaign, the US Secretary of State shook hands, warmly, said a word to each, longer to some (the Romanian, the Greek, for example), kissing the other (Emma Bonino) , guided by Catherine Ashton who presented those he did not know (Croatian Vesna Pusic). The objective of the meeting is to avoid having too great a division of Europeans. And on the French side, we hope to reach a consensus to designate Bashar's regime as the author of the chemical attacks of August 21. No more. “It would already be good” specifies a senior official.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
(*) “ European signatories will continue to engage in promoting a common European position »
The complete declaration, to download here
