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With free trade agreements, tomorrow we shave for free!

(BRUSSELS2) With the European Commission, tomorrow sings, especially in the era of free trade. According to the Brussels experts, if all the trade negotiations undertaken with third countries were concluded, the European gross domestic product would increase “ of 2,2 points or 275 billion. Promised, swore, spat. An agreement with Japan and the GDP means, for example, 0,6% and 400.000 unemployed people finding a job. Not bad, with the United States, it's 0,5 points of GDP more. This represents 545 euros per family of 2 adults and 2 children per year, our merry men even calculated (1). Yet another agreement, and we can abolish family allowances! However, this statistical paradise has taken a bit of a hit. In 2005, an OECD study, taken up by the Commission, put forward an even more marvelous figure: growth in GDP per capita of 3 to 3,5%! It is also the crisis for the predictionists in the room!

La vie en rose

The European Commission is used to these embellished statistics, not to say on the wet finger. In 2007, she predicted that the opening of so-called “Open Skies” agreements for American and European airlines would allow the creation of 80.000 new jobs. That's more than the workforce of Air France! The ace. For the moment, we have not seen many of these new jobs since the entry into force of the 2008 agreement. It would be rather the opposite. We degrease everywhere in Europe. For the past few months alone, we note: - 4500 jobs with the Spanish Iberia, - 3000 with the Dutch KLM, - 1000 with the Scandinavian SAS and even - 300 with the British law-cost Flybe. A carnage not foreseen by the experts planned by Brussels. Explanation of these errors. " European statistics only have one column, that of positive effects, not negative effects. Result, they are wrong every time …” analyzes an inner observer.

A cracked crystal ball

But it's an ingrained habit. Optimism is desperate at the European Commission. Witness: the latest growth forecast, released at the end of May, predicted “ gradually positive GDP growth in the second half of 2013, before accelerating more strongly in 2014 ". Apparently, the crystal ball is cracked… The IMF warned as early as June. Growth forecasts should be revised downwards. Even Germany, despite having good fundamentals, was severely corrected ". At the Berlaymont, headquarters of the Commission, however fierce towards the erratic forecasts of the States, we admit this sin " of optimism ". " We try to communicate positively about the crisis explains a spokesperson. “We must not be too pessimistic. Otherwise we commit suicide "...

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

NB: The same forecasts had been made in previous years, before being contradicted by the facts, a few months later.

(1) “An ambitious and comprehensive Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership could bring significant economic gains as a whole for the EU – estimated at €119 billion euros a year - and for the US around €95 billion euros a year once the agreement is fully implemented . This translates to an extra - on average - €545 euros in disposable income each year for a family of 4 in the EU.”

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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