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The Nobel in hand. And now to work! No more ostrich politics

(BRUSSELS2) The Nobel Prize reminds European leaders that the European Union is not just a euro zone in crisis or a simple market, it is also an actor in prevention, a maker of peace, a global presence. The torch has been somewhat left out. It must now be taken up and carried forward with more ambition and determination than in recent years.

1st task: implement the Lisbon Treaty

I engaged in a small analysis (published on the B2 club), only two main Lisbon provisions have so far entered into force: the European External Action Service and the appointment of a new High Representative. Two important points because they concern the structures. We can also note the adaptation of the status of the European Defense Agency and its repositioning at the crossroads of industry and operations, through the development of pooling and sharing (which remains, however, dependent on the will of the States members and a limitation of its means. From the point of view of legal and political instruments, the balance sheet looks like 0. Both the solidarity clause and the start-up fund or rapid access to funding from the European Union ( Article 41.3 TEU) are awaiting a proposal either from the High Representative and the Commission, or from the High Representative. And we are close to "lack" in the political sense of the term. The mutual assistance clause has not given rise to any debate nor measures of application. We therefore do not know how this clause can be put into force. This poses a singular problem for countries that are not members of NATO, in particular in the event of a slippage in the situation between Turkey and Syria which could by "ricochet" reach the small island of Cyprus. Ditto for the negotiation of partnerships with international organizations (UN...). Finally, no provision provided for in the Treaty allowing advances à la carte (enhanced cooperation, permanent structured cooperation, group of nations) has been put into force.

2nd task: examine the means of Europeans

We have to stop hiding our faces. Europe no longer has, or will soon no longer have, the means for its ambitions. Drastic reforms have already been initiated and others will still be necessary in all European armies as well as in most European states. With the help of the crisis and the following budgetary constraints, most Member States have to tighten the screw, significantly, and for many years. Concretely, this means a certain delay in terms of equipment renewal. But also a limitation of operational means. Asia has already overtaken, in terms of spending, Europe. At the rate things are going, in ten years Europe will be a defense dwarf. The objectives set by the European Union for the availability of forces are not ready to be achieved. Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the European Council, intended to put the question of defense at the summit of December... 2013! It's late, very late. By this time, most of the important choices will have been endorsed at the national level. And it will be very difficult to go back. A dangerous wait-and-see attitude.

Task 3: Assess Threats

Since 2003 and the first security strategy, since 2008 and its (very slight) revision, and even since 2009 entry into force of the new institutions born of the Lisbon Treaty, the situation in Europe and in the world has changed, if not completely, at least largely evolved. Europe has sunk into a crisis that is no longer cyclical but structural, its recovery will not take a few months but several years (a decade at the very least). The Arab world (Maghreb, Middle East) is in rapid turmoil. Asian countries (China, India, etc.) are on the rise. The United States is turning to Asia. Russia wants to regain its place in the world concert. In short, we are facing a new tectonic shock. It is high time to deeply assess this new group that is being born, the threats, our priorities. The Treaty of Lisbon had precisely provided for an assessment of threats by the European Council on a regular basis. The point must be put on the agenda quickly. And it will no doubt be necessary to undertake just as quickly in-depth work, of the "white paper" or "review" type in the European style. The aim is not to revise the European security strategy, but to supplement it with a more operational document.

4th task: stop dawdling, know how to react in time

The European Union was taken by surprise in Libya and did little in terms of either preventing the crisis or maintaining peace (apart from classic humanitarian action). Even today, it has failed to set up an action to assist the country's security forces. In the Sahel, while a mission was in the cards, it was overtaken by AQIM and the internal rebellion which significantly destabilized Mali. In West Africa, a maritime piracy is about to acquire a . Each time, Europe had the instruments, the opportunity to act, even thought about it (if necessary in a practical way by planning or studying options for action). Each time, she was overtaken by time. It is no longer possible today to procrastinate and reflect for 4 years (as for the Eucap Niger mission) to set up a mission. You have to decide to go there. Or giving up on acting and accepting the consequences.

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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