Russia and Finland: the war of words, against an arctic background
(BRUSSELS2) While the Finnish government has still not opted to join NATO, Russia has just said, clearly and clearly, "Nothing" to this possibility, if it materializes in advance. For General Nikolai Makarov, the commander of the Russian defense forces, such a membership would represent a "threat for Russia".
A danger for Russia, Finland?
« Finland's participation in NATO exercises proves that Finland is getting more and more involved in the circle of NATO activities. Under certain conditions, it could even cause a military danger to the security of Russia. “said the general in his address to the Association of National Defense Trainees at the University … of Helsinki in early June, reports the Finnish press. In particular, he points the finger at Finnish national defense exercises near Russia. We can wonder who we are about to fight against he wonders. Makarov is not stingy with thunderous declarations. Thus at the beginning of May, during a conference on anti-missile defense in Moscow, he had no hesitation in estimating that " Given the destabilizing nature of the European anti-missile shield (…) the decision to carry out a preventive strike (…) could be taken (by the Russian General Staff) if the situation were to worsen ».
The fear of seeing Finland move closer to NATO
According to Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Relations who specializes in security issues, these remarks by General Makarov are not entirely unexpected. " His closeness to the heart of the Kremlin suggests that what he says is not against what the Kremlin thinks, even though he used his own words he confided in an exchange with B2. And the researcher to read the Russian message as well. Beyond the exercises, it is the current level of cooperation with NATO, particularly on the Arctic, (which) is problematic for Russia. Although Makarov does not mention it explicitly, it can be taken that he is referring to discussions of Finland and Sweden participating in the surveillance of Icelandic airspace. »
A warning that aims for the neutrality of the Arctic and beyond the United States
If for the Finns (and the Swedes), this participation stems more from Nordic cooperation, “ fully in line with broader Nordic defense efforts (NORDEFCO), and as a forum for cooperation beneficial to their own security”, for the Russians it seems to be different. “Makarov also said that Nordic cooperation (especially in the Arctic regions) was problematic.. "Russia thus considers rather" Surveillance Icelandic airspace as a NATO project. And Russia is so worried about what « NORDEFCO will lead Sweden and Finland to cooperate even more intensively with NATO ". in fact it is not Finland per se that is " a threat to Russia but its “increased cooperation with NATO” which could make the situation more difficult for Russia. Generally speaking, we are witnessing here the reiteration of a classic Russian position, aimed more broadly at NATO and the United States, and their " desire not to militarize the Arctic, and that NATO's 'phased' approach to ballistic missile defense is not acceptable to Russia. »
