Elections in France: first elements of analysis for Europe (update)
If the first voting intentions are confirmed, we can already draw some lessons.
The President of the Republic reaches a ceiling and lets himself be left behind by the Socialist candidate. Several elements came into play. His policy disappointed: the slogan "work more, earn more" was an excellent slogan, but it did not materialize, so disappointment... His back and forth - pro European then anti-European, modern then traditional.. - made his message incomprehensible. His early mistakes were not made up for afterwards; gone to meet only a part of his electorate - the rich industrial right - he forgot his other parts - in particular the popular right. Finally, he pays for a very late start in the campaign and too much confidence in his strength as a juggler. In fact, contrary to what one might have expected, it did not really benefit from the attacks in Toulouse, and its flashback to security.
The president has a small reserve of votes for the second round. It is not the contribution of the votes of Bayrou that will be able to come to the rescue - especially since a party will vote rather on the left or in fishing (abstention). And there are few "small" candidates from the center or the popular right that he can hope to rally (a Dominique de Villepin or a Jean-Louis Borloo would have been useful). We will have to go fishing on the far right, or even round up all of these far-right voices. Which seems difficult.
The far right's score may come as a surprise. This is to forget that the National Front, under Le Pen father and daughter, has not ceased - election after election - to grab a few points. Its crush in 2007 could have made think of a reversal, it was not so. It was just an adventure. Another important element, the high turnout shows that part of the population (1 in 5 French people) will vote for Le Pen. It does not thus benefit from a rise in percentage, thanks to a strong abstention. This is doubly worrying. Because she will find herself in arbiter of many of the following elections, starting with the legislative ones, where the triangular ones will be numerous.
There is thus generally a return of the left, in France, with the (re)constitution of an important pole on the left of the socialist party, grouped around a single candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. There is also a certain crushing of the various far-left parties (Workers' Struggle, New Anti-Capitalist Party) in favor of a single candidate who is not only more media-friendly, but also more consensual and symbolic. It is not obvious that all these voices refer to Hollande in the second round. But the socialist candidate should be assured of a better report of votes than those of the extreme right on Sarkozy.
If François Hollande is elected to the presidency of the Republic, we will find in France an unprecedented political situation, where the left has all the levers of power. In 1981, when Mitterrand was in power, the senate was still on the right. More today. For the past ten years, apart from a few local accidents, the left has won all the elections — municipal, cantonal, regional... —; which allowed him to conquer the upper house (the senate) deemed to be the guarantor of stability. An important point because this composition will influence the other structures of the State such as the Constitutional Council (appointed by the presidents of the three structures: Presidency of the Republic, National Assembly, Senate).
This election result could have a dynamic effect - which should reflect on elections in several other countries - the Netherlands in particular, the Czech Republic (possibly) and Germany next year. Admittedly, each country has its internal political springs, but there are also general cycles. After having been for a good ten years very oriented to the right, there could be not a complete return of the pendulum to the left, but a certain rebalancing between the right and the left, which could influence future European policies.
