Syria: beware of the Russian trap, hold on, bet on the disintegration of the regime (Juppé)

(BRUSSELS2) Could Russia move on Syria? The French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alain Juppé was quite perplexed on this question which is fundamental in order to be able to envisage a solution to the massacres in Syria. " I thought that the past elections, the dialogue could be envisaged in a more consensual way. Obviously, that's not happening.". Indeed in the entourage of the minister, it is not hidden that the arrival of Putin is likely not to bring relaxation at the international level. On the contrary, his first interventions whether on the anti-missile shield, Iran and Syria rather raise fears of a hardening.

Admittedly, Russia 2012 is no longer that of Russia 2000 after Yeltsin and Putin. will have to evolve internally at least, it still remains a big question mark. If Russia seems effectively isolated on the international scene, having only a few disreputable allies (North Korea, Cuba, etc.), this does not mean, however, that it will support the Arab League's draft resolution.

The Russian trap

According to some information, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov could, Monday in New York, at the Security Council announce a development and join an international resolution. But not quite the one hoped for by the Western and Arab camp. He could well put the wrongs on each side in a "neutral" decision. And on the French side, we fear, like everything, falling into this Russian trap. By refusing to sideline Bashar, and favoring only humanitarian aid and an end to the violence, the Russians would somehow freeze the situation, giving the regime the advantage. He is " scandalous to put, on the same level, the citizens who defend themselves and those who bombard it who place Snipers, as in Homs, to target women and children” declared Alain Juppé at the end of the informal meeting in Copenhagen. “We will not accept the dismissal of opponents and the regime back to back. It is up to the regime to stop these attacks. It will then be necessary for the violence to cease, and for the democratic process to be implemented. »

The humanitarian corridors - already proposed by France - “ haven't had much success recognizes the Minister. But he " we need to bring this idea back to life ". There are two ways - he specifies: either the regime agrees to allow NGOs access, or they must be granted access ».

In the absence of a solution on the United Nations side, we can say to ourselves: what to do? The French Minister for Foreign Affairs sees several avenues: ensuring support for Kofi Annan's Mission, supporting the Friends of Syria process (the Tunis meeting brought together 60 countries; the objective in Istanbul is to bring together almost two times more, around 100), push the opposition to unite and bet on desertions, increase the sanctions...

Strengthen sanctions : we are almost at the end

Sanctions are one of the vectors of this pressure. A number of measures have been taken, we can still take it. But we have already reached a certain level. And we don't have much room for progression. A senior French diplomat told B2. Some economic sectors could still be targeted - phosphates for example or other precious metals (already considered in the previous decision) - and other names could still be added to the blacklist. " But that's about all ". Besides, it's no secret. And Alain Juppé confirmed it in Copenhagen: the sanctions have, without doubt, an effect but often in the long term. They cannot prevent the violence. " It's not a panacea, sometimes they work, sometimes they work less well. But in some situations, the choice is clear: either we do nothing, or we use the sanctions that may have some utility. ". The diplomats bet that the blockage helping, the bourgeoisie, the middle classes of the regime will move and join the opposition.

Hold, bet on the disintegration of the regimee

If there is no other solution, the French minister - and the Europeans - bet(s) on the " disintegration of the regime. " This regime cannot be sustained. He will be dropped by a number of leaders, by even more leaders underlines Alain Juppé. To promote the "escape" of those in charge of the regime, it is therefore important to keep the nearby borders open. And offer a welcome to opponents and deserters. The 'No Fly Zone' could help this, pointed out French opposition officials - by allowing army deserters to be sure of not being bombed. But we also know how much this solution requires a UN agreement.

For Alain Juppé, anyway, " This regime will not be able to survive. When a leader massacres thousands of citizens, bombs his cities, he is condemned to disappear from the political scene. (And) The sooner the better " Corn " The situation is extremely difficult » ; the system of government " exerts real terror, including on families ". " One must keep ».

Keep your capacity for indignation

Despite everything... for the French Minister, it is essential, we must keep our capacity for indignation. " I would not like that as time goes by, our capacity for indignation does not weaken. (...) . " I have a thought for the Syrian population, subjected to scandalous treatment. What happened in Homs happened in other cities. (...)  De Villepin said that it kept him from sleeping. I too can say it: (the situation in Syria) prevents me from sleeping. »