Holland: a Gaullist position on defense… and a few darts to Sarkozy

(BRUXELLES2 in Paris - analysis and decryption) Assessing, reflecting, debating... François Hollande's speech on Defense in Paris was designed as a key moment in the expression of the candidate for President of the Republic on a subject " too little present in the campaign so far as he himself admitted. The content of the proposals does not really show large and clear differences vis-à-vis the policy pursued so far by the French governments (Sarkozy included). He is careful not to criticize the Head of State head-on; but on many of his positions (Africa, Afghanistan, equipment...), he plants a few banderillas in the policy of the Head of State. However, it remains vague, even very vague, on many aspects, displaying a few principles, without specifying the stages or precise objectives, let alone the means. Approximation seems the norm...

But for the Socialists the objective has been achieved. " It is the coherence of the discourse that must be looked at” clarified Jean-Yves Le Drian, defense adviser to the candidate, to B2. " The reaffirmation of the primacy of politics, a rebalancing of the powers of the President of the Republic towards the Prime Minister and a role for the National Assembly », This is what François Lamy sees in this exercise which looks like a compulsory exercise for the candidate. However, it is necessary to be wary of this skilfully maintained fog to avoid giving rise to criticism (it is the campaign above all) and to concentrate on the possible consequences of some of its proposals. By conducting a few conversations with various PS officials, after F. Hollande's speech, I was thus able to clarify certain aspects which suggest an inflection, if not radical, of French policy, at least a change of state of mind. : stoppage of the Epervier operation in Chad, for example; more weight for Parliament; etc... Decryption!

Defense strategy

Generally speaking, military reform has been poorly piloted ". F. Hollande wants a “ assessment of ongoing reforms ».

Values, France, a "great and beautiful nation"

This discourse is, in fact, above all a solemn message to the Nation " by giving back " hommage to those who are involved: sailors in the fight against piracy, airmen for Libya, veterans, etc. Defence, for him, is preservation of the common good » ; F. Holland hears “ give back place to our country, to values, to peace", without "weakening the defense of our interests ". France is a great and beautiful nation, with an original voice, an attachment to democracy, to the recognition of peoples, to the promotion of peace.

Strategy, threats, a new White Book

The new strategy is based on a clear threat assessment ". The socialist candidate sees three: Terrorism, Disasters (Fukushima), Proliferation.

To ensure the renewal of the army, he intends " produce a new White Paper quickly with the military and other parties.

NB: a commitment that costs nothing, since this work is already underway. But no doubt it will be reoriented. And the revision undertaken more in depth than that expected by Nicolas Sarkozy.

A rebalancing of functions within the State

If the President of the Republic remains the leader, Hollande intends to break with the practice of concentration and decision of powers by a single person and a single institution. It is the Prime Minister, who is by the Constitution " national defense officer "and there is a Ministry of Defense which must ensure" the primacy of politics ».

Defense is a pillar of the republic ", but to " exclusive service of the Republic ". The candidate wants to trust the defense personnel, great servants of the State, civilians and soldiers, their requirement, their sense of responsibility; he also intends that they preserve their " neutrality “, will be able to fully count on the president for a “ open debate ».

Review of external operations

All external operations will undergo a "re-examination", " in connection with friendly nations ". It is necessary to examine the legitimacy and effectiveness ". France's external operations will always be under a United Nations mandate ". He defines the role of an external operation of the armies as follows: prevent war and maintain peace, by law, by cooperation, and when necessary by action ". NB: by closely examining the other decisions, we can thus see that the Epervier operation in Chad could see its days numbered, just like certain posts in Africa or in the Persian Gulf.

A greater role for Parliament

Parliament must be more involved in external operations (the Opex) which will have to carry out an evaluation " overall commitments » regularly (NB: a priori every year) as well as a debate on each operation to determine whether it complies with the objectives or whether it should be stopped.

NB: we can see in this decision neither more nor less the translation of what already exists. But according to a Socialist Party official, the objective is to give more weight to Parliament with, on the one hand, an overall examination of all the missions, and, on the other hand, by mission, not to carry out an examination after 4 months, and that's it, but more quickly, and more often if necessary. Translation: this would thus have avoided allowing a mission in Afghanistan to continue, the objectives of which everyone has long since lost along with the benchmarks.

Rebuilding the partnership with Africa, working with the African Union

Africa is “a continent full of power, economic, full of deposits, economic and human. This is where the future of the world is at stake" for François Hollande who intends to restore a " cooperation rid of old forms, inherited from the post-colonial period (...) and change certain relations". More precisely, il wants " overhaul the defense cooperation policy with Africa”, in particular, wants to implement a global partnership with the African Union, which has asserted itself as a major player in peacekeeping, ensuring that the Europeans are involved".

NB: It is in a way the restart of the Amani Africa operation, which has sunk a little since it passed into European hands. Wouldn't it have been easier to mention this cooperation?

Afghanistan: withdrawal is confirmed before 2012

In Afghanistan, "The situation is serious and confusing ". Paying tribute to the 82 dead and wounded soldiers, he said: We won't give up, we won't forget ". But he reiterates his commitment: the withdrawal of combat troops by the end of 2012 ". This is the logical conclusion of the end of operations.

NB: much has been said about the technical impossibility of effecting such a rapid withdrawal. This is the withdrawal of combat troops, in contact. And not of all the troops. The number of soldiers responsible for dismantling the bases, medical or logistical support if necessary, and the protection of these soldiers will therefore have to remain on site. Which should take a few more months. And we thus arrive not far from the objective of 2013 which now seems to hold the rope on the UMP side.

The army of tomorrow

military personnel better considered

He is " time to recognize the military as full citizens "he underlines committing to" improve the professional representation of the military "just like their" participation in civic life ". Nb: the word trade unions is never pronounced, contrary to 1981.

Hollande expresses his attachment to the status of the military " will no longer accept that the payment of military salaries arrive late. This is unacceptable he announces, pointing to a culprit "the software". He also wants to hire a reflection " on the " judicialization of operations ».

The nation army link

It is also necessary to strengthen cohesion between the nation and the army, in particular by " refocusing " the defense and citizenship day (the former JAPD), in " lengthening it as needed ».

Defense budget cut limited to general budget cut

The defense effort will in fact be indexed to the general effort, neither more nor less. The candidate wanted to reassure the military who were afraid of drastic cuts. “Defence will not have to undergo more savings than the general effort of the State”. But there will certainly be shifts. There are " choice to make " (see below). As for budget cuts, if there are any they will have to be “transparent” and not like today through various artifices or by delaying certain equipment. NB: Comment from a specialist on the subject at the PS: "we'll see, but it's not sure that this promise will be kept".

DGA, intelligence and drones

For this army of tomorrow, F. Hollande wants to emphasize intelligence (a term that comes up many times in the candidate's mouth) as well as cyber, and " strengthen the general arms delegation (DGA).

Some priorities are dictated in terms of equipment: the space sector, the protection of combat units, such as command and logistics in operation, drones " too long neglected ».

Hands off nuclear deterrence

The candidate does not intend to abandon anything of France's tools of power, starting with the nuclear deterrent - " the sentinel of our nation - None of the means, air or sea, will be deleted. Likewise, he intends to defend the seat on the Security Council

Renovating the defense industry

Dassault's days are numbered ?

It is on the defense industry that the candidate's objectives seem the most contradictory. The defense industry has too long been subject to interests that were not automatically those of the republic, it " do not submit to private groups ". He does not say who he is targeting, but everyone can think first of Dassault. And he affirms the desire to have a single supervisory authority, in particular over intermediaries and final recipients ».

Building large groups: with whom?

He also says he wants a strong defense industry ", build "large defense industry groups", which ensure the " guarantee of independence and employment ". And do it" at the European level ". After all, the defense industry is arguably one of the " less relocatable He says.

NB: A little complex: building at European level means controlling at European level, making alliances with certain countries. But who: British or/and Germans. However, this can sometimes be contradictory with independence. Especially since the Germans are quite burned - rightly or wrongly - by the French policy pursued for several years. Germany, reunified, strong, can no longer stand being treated like a little child who is embarked on so-called "European" projects but where, in the end, France wants to reserve the scoop or the last word . This modus vivendi is over in Berlin, whether on the SPD or CDU side. And it is imperative - it seems - to have discussed it with experts of the file that the socialists become aware of it. Otherwise they risk taking a "Nein" to all their desires for collaboration.

NATO and Defense Europe

2014: 1 years of the First World War

The socialist candidate wants “a great commemorative event " in 2014, one hundred years after the First World War for " all nations involved in this conflict.

NB: we do not know when this commemoration will take place. But we have to realize that this commemoration will not be able to avoid a few key dates: between June 28, the day of the Sarajevo attack, it would be the most logical and September 1, the date of France's entry into the war, it There is a whole range of decisions varying according to the country (July 23, date of the ultimatum of Austria-Hungary to Serbia, July 24 day of the Russian mobilization, the 25 that of Serbia, July 28 day of the declaration of war of Austria-Hungary on Serbia, July 29 or 30 date of the Russian mobilization). Choosing a single date would certainly be a mistake.

Take stock of NATO and Defense Europe

France did not derive any advantage from the reintegration of NATO. He therefore wants an "assessment" of the advantages obtained, to obtain real guarantees of France's independence (which could mean that nuclear deterrence will not be reinstated). And we must ask ourselves about the reason for being " organisation.

NB: After the operation in Afghanistan, what is NATO going to do? Good question

Reviving Defense Europe

F. Holland hears “ revitalize Defense Europe », with the United Kingdom and Germany, Belgium, Italy... and Poland. He wants " resume work on strategies and capabilities”.

Comments : A certain ignorance or a certain naivety

How, according to what timetable, on what objectives... We don't know? We can still only be worried about the incantatory level of certain proposals, particularly at European level. Reaffirming French strength, its desire to control industry, its decisions with which the Europeans will be associated, is not quite the Community method. The Europeans seem to be, here, the lackeys of French proposals, once again. Suffice to say that we will then have to row to convince our allies of the correctness of the positions... This concern is reinforced by a kind of Atlantic tropism which resembles the Sarkosian way. Thus the candidate's defense adviser, JY Le Drian, went to Washington but not elsewhere. " It is the most important he told us. So no high-level meeting in Germany, Spain or Italy. Not a bit embarrassing when you want to build a European policy or refound that of NATO. No ?...

Listen to the intervention on Dailymotion