The Althea mission in Bosnia below the waterline…

(BRUSSELS2) The 27 European Union Defense Ministers, gathered in Wroclaw (Poland) for an informal meeting, will notably have to consider the future of the European military operation deployed in Bosnia-Herzegovina (EUFOR Althea). The discussions have been going on for several months - what am I saying!, more than two years. And the 27 have still not managed to agree on a viable solution. This while the workforce on the ground is continuously decreasing as member states decide to no longer contribute.

Disagreement over the future

Several countries (France, Spain, etc.) are in favor of closing the mission or transforming it into a non-executive mission, which requires much less resources. We have entered into another dynamic in the region (NB: enlargement, membership) they explain. And the situation on the spot no longer requires a military mission (NB: which is recognized by everyone). Other states (Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, etc.) are, on the contrary, in favor of keeping an executive mandate with a reduced workforce and a reserve capacity to be able to react if necessary, while the situation can always get out of hand. Position supported by the United Kingdom follower of the "status quo" which also makes it possible to keep the only mission of the EU placed under Berlin Plus (that is to say in joint command of NATO). A discussion which is very useful because the United Nations will have to decide on the decision to renew or not the mandate of Eufor Althea; decision scheduled for November.

Barely more than half of the necessary staff

On the ground, the reality is that the EUFOR Althea operation no longer has, according to concordant sources, the means to carry out its mandate. We are a " third below the minimum required for the mandate says a senior European diplomat. A relatively optimistic percentage since according to our sources, we are even approaching the half mark. Althea would only have 1300 men present on the spot - figure officially confirmed - instead of the 2200 required. And yet this figure is reached only thanks to the presence of a large Turkish contingent and a few (numerically weak) reinforcements from Latin America! In fact, EU Member States only contribute to the mission in this way with less than 1000 men.

No one wants to go to Bosnia and Herzegovina anymore

With each renewal, the workforce loses feathers. We thus went from almost 2000, to 1800, then less than 1500 (in June 2011) and today 1300. And this trend is not about to be reversed. With the help of the budgetary crisis, no State seems willing to increase its quota, which remains at the expense of the national budget. On the contrary... The operation's budget is not communitized except for a small part (the command and certain common tasks) unlike the civilian missions of the EU. The Dutch have already indicated that they are leaving in November.

Who will take over? Person. Who really wants to stay in Sarajevo? Nobody, apart from the countries of the former tutelary/colonial power (Austria-Hungary or Turkey). Perhaps this reality principle should be taken into account. Either the countries in favor of maintaining the mission, consider that it is vital, and reinforce their personnel to ensure the minimum necessary; which is far from the case. Either turn the page. And close this mission, even if it means keeping a reserve battlegroup, the weapon at the foot (just in case). I feel like a bis repetita. I had already written two years ago (!) that the 27 had to consider "once again!, the future of the military operation in Bosnia-Herzegovina". Two years later nothing is still really settled despite several papers, non-papers, etc. Even if no one says it out loud, many think it. “It's not very serious”, it's even downright “stupid”.

• A non paper on the Althea mission
• The Althea operation (Bosnia) will lose some personnel by the end of the year
• Albanians and Slovaks as reinforcements in the Althea mission
• No Turk at the head of EUFOR Althea
• No new operation in Bosnia, but a new mission within Althea
• Bosnia (file) The situation is “calm” in terms of security, according to Althea
• Failure of the Swedish Presidency on Althea Bosnia (update)
• Althea Bosnia: green light for a smooth transformation of the operation?
• The Netherlands maintain their presence in Althea
• Althea Mission Random Transformation
• In Bosnia, Althea II will be a new “technical” mission