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Who will lead Europe in 2009 (Maj2): the 27 Commissioners

(BRUSSELS2) Since my first score, there have been some changes. Some countries have appointed their representative to the Commission (usually through elections to the European Parliament or national elections). But in a number of countries, the situation still remains uncertain, either because of ongoing national elections (Germany, Czech Republic, etc.), or by strategy (many countries are blurring the tracks of both candidates and prospective positions, to be able to get better than what is offered to them).

A Commission that leans (logically) to the right. What is certain is that most of the current candidacies reflect the evolution of EU member states to the right: most of the candidates are thus logically Christian Democrats or Liberals. This is not without posing problems for the legitimacy of the European Commission, which must respect a certain balance of political families, and represent the entire population, beyond the elections of the moment (who knows in 3 or 4 years, if this mono-color policy will still be
topical).

Desperately looking for a woman. As for the distribution between men and women, it is frankly unequal. The number of women already appointed or likely to be appointed is very low: only three women are sure of appearing in the next Commission (Bulgaria, Denmark, Luxembourg). In fact, when several candidates are in the balance, even if it is not the favorite, the female name has one more chance in its pocket (Austria, Ireland...). But even with this "positive discrimination", we still seem far from the "minimum psychological" threshold of 8-9 Commissioners (that's a third of the Commission). In countries that do not yet have a designated favourite, a female candidate could therefore emerge all the more easily, since by presenting a woman, the country concerned is in a stronger position to try to obtain the position sought.

Germany. Nothing is certain. The only achievement: the current Commissioner Günther Verheugen (SPD/Social Democrat) is leaving. General elections are held in September. And everything will depend on the coalition that comes out of the polls: the big one bringing together (as today) CDU-CSU and SPD or a CDU-FDP or even CDU-FDP-Grüne coalition. Each party therefore has one or more candidates. On the SPD (Social Democrat) side, it's simple: Martin Schulz, leader of the PES in the European Parliament has been nominated as the candidate. On the CDU (EPP) side, it is more confusing. An ideal candidate would have been Wolfgang Schaüble (former leader of the CDU/EPP, current Minister of the Interior). But he was the competitor of A. Merkel. Officially questioned Angela Merkel refused to indicate that he could be her candidate, which is a kind of tacit denial. One of the Chancellor's favorite candidates was initially Peter Hintze (Secretary of State for the Economy). But we also mention the name of the economic expert, Friedrich Merz, or even of the specialist in foreign policy, the MEP Elmar Brok. In the event of an alliance, with the Greens or the Liberals, it seems difficult for the Christian Unions (CDU, CSU) to accept a candidate who is not one of them (we remember the ordeal journey of Schreyer constantly attacked during his mandate) . Too bad because the name of Joshka Fischer, sometimes cited, would have made a good candidate. On the portfolio side, Germany could target Competition or Economy/Finance. Important point: during their meeting in Paris in June, Angela Merkel and especially Nicolas Sarkozy affirmed that they had a reciprocal agreement to support the claims and respective candidates of their two countries at the Commission.

Austria. External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner (OVP/EPP) would have liked to stay. But the ruling Socialist/Christian Democrat coalition (SPO/OVP) does not hear it that way. Wilhelm Molterer, OVP's constitutional spokesman in the national parliament is the most recently named candidate. But the person concerned, questioned by the press, still refused to answer that he was a candidate. Another possible candidate for the post of High Representative for Foreign Policy, Ursula Plassnik (ÖVP), the Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Possible position: enlargement.

Belgium. With the departure of Louis Michel (MR/Liberal) from the European Parliament, the renewal of the Belgian post is already certain. Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht (VLD/Liberal) takes up the post of Development Commissioner in the current Commission. According to the principle of linguistic rotation specific to the country, the French speaker must give way to a Flemish, more precisely, a Flemish liberal, according to the current distribution of the coalition in the federal government. And he should remain so in the future Commission. But at another post. He is aiming for a more prestigious position such as that of High Representative for Foreign Policy.

Bulgaria. The current Consumer Commissioner, Meglena Kuneva (MSNE Mouvement Siméon II/Liberal) has been elected to the European Parliament. But don't want to sit there. His reappointment to the Commission in 2009 is however not certain. The new Prime Minister Boiko Borisov having always indicated that he wanted a new name, close to or member of his party. The name of Roumiana
Jeleva (GERB / ​​EPP), renowned sociologist, currently MEP is often quoted.

(to be confirmed) Cyprus. The current Health Commissioner, Androulla Vassiliou (Liberal), wants to be renewed. But the government (left) could prefer another candidate.

Denmark. The current agriculture commissioner, Mariann Fischer-Boel (Venstre/Liberal), has done a good job, we are assured in Copenhagen, and could be reappointed. Denmark aims to keep the same position: Agriculture. This is contested by the "agricultural" States (France, Romania, etc.).

Spain. The current Commissioner for the Economy, Joaquim Almunia (PES), is a candidate for renewal and his government is ready to support him. Javier Solana has just indicated that he will give up the post of High Representative for Foreign Policy at the end of his mandate (October).

Estonia. The current administration commissioner, Siim Kallas (who moved from the PC to the Reform Party/Liberal) is expected to stay. He is a candidate for renewal and his government supports him.

Finland. The current Enlargement Commissioner, Olli Rehn (Centre Party/Liberal), is on track to be renewed. He was aiming for a "Foreign Affairs" post, which seems excluded. But energy issues or development cooperation would also be his preference.

France. The "natural" candidate could be Michel Barnier (UMP/EPP, current minister for agriculture and former minister for foreign affairs and former commissioner for regional policy - head of the list in the European elections). France is aiming for an important economic post (Internal Market or Competition) or even the post of High Representative.

Greece. The current environment commissioner, Stavros Dimas (New Democracy/EPP) is a candidate for renewal. This is a real success (one of the few!) of this Commission. We can not emphasize this enough.

Hungary. The current tax commissioner, Laszlo Kovacs (former PC who became a social democrat in the MZSP/PSE), would not be renewable. He could be replaced by the current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Péter Balázs (PES affiliate), briefly commissioner in 2004.

Ireland. In place of Internal Market Commissioner Charlie McCreevy (Fianna Fail/Liberal), who is expected to leave his post, the name of;. Within it, three names are mentioned: Mary Harney, Minister of Health, Mary Coughlan, Minister of Business, Trade and Employment, or Noël Dempsey, Minister of Transport. If Ireland wants to aim for a more important position, it could send two personalities to Brussels: Pat Cox, the former president of the European Parliament (Liberal), or John Brutton, current head of the EC delegation to the United States. and former Prime Minister (Fine Gael/EPP). Only problems, these two men do not belong to a party in power. But there are arguments in their favour, including in terms of internal politics.
Read theexcellent commentary by Jamie Smith of the daily "Independent".

Italy. The current Transport Commissioner, Antonio Tajani (Forza Italia/EPP), recently appointed by Berlusconi, was to be reappointed. But recently, Berlusconi mentioned the claim of the post of High Representative for Franco Frattini who would return to Brussels in this way (he was Commissioner for Justice and Home Affairs from November 2004 to May 2008).

(to confirm) • Latvia. The current Commissioner for Energy, Andris Piebalgs (Latvijas Cels "the Latvian way"/EPP), propelled by default (candidate Ingrida Udre had then been rejected by Parliament) has not had such a bad career despite early stammering. He is one of the few who do not really want to re-enlist but whose government is having a hard time replacing.

Lithuania. The Commissioner responsible for the budget, Dalia Grybauskaité, having become President of Lithuania after a triumphant election on 17th May 2009, she has already been replaced by Algirdas Gediminas, who has been Minister of Finance several times in Lithuania. This one could remain in the 2009 Commission.

Luxembourg. The Commissioner responsible for the Information Society, Viviane Reding (CSV/EPP), has been appointed by her country to remain at the Commission. The Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, who has long been the "best candidate of all" at the head of the European Commission, is not at all cited in this perspective. He currently holds the presidency of the Eurogroup – the meeting of Finance Ministers of the Euro zone.

(to confirm)Malta. Fisheries Commissioner Joe Borg (National Party/EPP) is a candidate for reappointment.

Netherlands. The current competition commissioner, Neelie Kroes (VVD/Liberal), despite her good career, may not be reappointed. It is wrong not to be on the same side as the ruling coalition (even if it is also supported by the Greens and D66). The problem is to find a commissioner who builds consensus between the two coalition parties. At the CDA/PPE (Christian Democrat), we believe that after two Liberals (Bolkestein, Kroes), it is time to have a Christian Democrat commissioner. Piet-Hein Donner (Minister of Social Affairs) or Cees Veerman (former Minister of Agriculture, already a candidate in 2004) could be candidates, but a weighty outsider could be Jaap de Hoop Scheffer who finishes his mandate in NATO if the post of High Representative for Foreign Policy was offered to him (read here). On the side of the PVDA/PES (social democrat), the other partner in the coalition, are in the running Frans Timmermans (European Affairs) or his predecessor Dick Benschop.

Poland. Despite the appointment of another Commissioner, Pawel Samecki, to replace Danuta Hübner in the Regional Policy portfolio in the current Commission, it is Jacek Lewandowski (PO-EPP, MEP) who still holds the rope in Warsaw to be the new commissioner. Former member of Solidarnosc, Vice-President of the Budget Committee at the European Parliament. Coveted portfolios: an important "economic" position (according to Prime Minister Tusk). It could in fact be: industry – SMEs, or even energy, which was also mentioned.

Portugal. It's simple. José-Manuel Barroso (PPE), President of the Commission, is a candidate for renewal. And the (social-democratic) government of Socrates supports it. In the name of national solidarity but also because it is always preferable to leave a potential competitor far from Lisbon. If by a singular coincidence, he fails to be appointed as president, the question then remains open. And we could hear again about Antonio Vitorino who left an excellent memory as Commissioner for Home Affairs and Justice, and had been landed to make way for J.-M. Barroso.

Romania : the current commissioner for Multilingualism, Leonard Orban (PNL/Liberal) would be replaced. Although Lazar Comanescu, the former representative to the EU and Minister of Foreign Affairs, has often been quoted, it is more the Minister of Agriculture, Davian Ciolos, who is popular in Bucharest. It has the support of the two main parties (socialist of the PSD and liberal of the PDL). And Romania, which wants a post other than a folding seat, is aiming for the post of Commissioner for Agriculture (a claim supported by France).

(to confirm) • United Kingdom. The current commissioner (Trade), Catherine Ashton (Labour/PES), appointed recently to replace Mandelson who has returned to London, would like to be reappointed. But his party struggled to keep up. And the Brown government has, for the moment, other fish to fry than appointing a representative in Brussels. In the event of increased pressure for the government, or a new departure of a minister, the post of Commissioner could be a way out.

Slovakia. Education Commissioner Jan Figel (KDH/EPP) is leaving. Even if the name of Milan Urbani, deputy of the LS-HZDS, is often mentioned, the commissioner should be appointed by the majority party in government (SMER/PSE) which won the European elections. Two candidates: the former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Jan Kubis (SMER/PES), or the current one, Miroslav Lajcak, who until recently was high representative of the EU in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Slovenia. The current Research Commissioner, Janez Potocnik (LDS/Liberal) who was given a moment leaving the Commission would see himself renewed. He seems to have the support of the current government (left coalition and small center parties). The only serious alternative could be the former Prime Minister, Anton Rop (now Social Democrat/PES).

Sweden. To replace Margot Wallström (PES), Sweden's centre-right government has the delicate task of appointing its candidate as it presides over the European Union in the second half of 2. A possible candidate could be the former MEP, now minister , Cecilia Malmström (EPP). But that would force him to give up his post before the end of the presidency (unless Wallström agrees to push the fires for a month or two). As for the current Minister for Foreign Affairs, Carl Bildt (Moderates/EPP), he recently withdrew; his candidacy for the post of High Representative having apparently been refused by several countries.

Rep. Czech. Everything depends on the result of the early legislative elections. The parties have agreed not to reveal the name of their candidate until after the October elections. Among the potential candidates, the current European Commissioner for Employment, Vladimir Spidla (CSSD / PSE) who would like to stay in Brussels. Former Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek (ODS / ECR) could well see himself returning to center stage; which would be a consolation for one who was defeated in the middle of the Czech EU Presidency and which would be a kind of continuity (Spidla had also been Prime Minister). This is all the more so as an agreement between the two main parties – quoted by the Czech media – mentions that the post would go to the leader of the party who would not obtain the post of Prime Minister. According to this agreement, if the Social Democrats do not win, it would be Jiri Paroubek (CSSD/PSE). Other names have also been mentioned, such as Jan Fischer, the current Prime Minister of the technical government (without a label), or even the defeated presidential candidate, Jan Svejnar (close to the PSE or the Greens) or Jan Kohout, the current Minister for Foreign Affairs (PES affiliate). Among the targeted portfolios: energy, science and research, or social affairs.

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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