Does Barroso still have a majority in the European Parliament? Quick another candidate...

By postponing until September (possibly later) the vote on the reappointment of José-Manuel Barroso as head of the European Commission, MEPs
let time to see... But two months is a long time, very long. And in the entourage of José-Manuel Barroso, we are very anxious. And we did everything to ensure that the deadline was not postponed.
But it's too late. Here comes summer, where the news can change at any time, then autumn. And, in the European Parliament, the former Portuguese Prime Minister, ardent supporter of the intervention
in Iraq, is less and less sure of having its majority. Despite all the urgent calls - sometimes a little too much, some MEPs complained - from JM Barroso's cabinet, which has become
electoral strike force, as the days go by, the opponents are getting stronger. The bronca party of the Greens and the Communists thus won over most of the other "big" parties.

• The Socialists and Democrats are no longer determined to make a gift: the leader Martin Schulz, who did not have enough words for Barroso in private, was almost ready to side with the
Realpolitik and support this candidate. But the defeat of the PS has reduced and stiffened its troops and the electoral campaign in Germany (as in Portugal) does not encourage softness. Even the Portuguese and
Spaniards whose governments support Barroso are not all willing to support him in Strasbourg.

• The Liberals and Democrats, led by Guy Verhofstadt, have begun to swing. The former Belgian Prime Minister, who one might think a priori not far from Barroso on certain
ideological points is, in fact, its antithesis from a political point of view: hostile to intervention in Iraq, federalist and willing for a new European audacity, having become a partisan of
regulation over the years (1), the group is thus in the process of switching to a wait-and-see attitude or even hostility (for a good third of elected officials).

• Even among the Christian Democrats in the EPP, the anti-Barroso vote is winning. "The EPP, which was the only party to present a candidate during the European election campaign, got caught up in this
candidate. His problem now is, how to withdraw, give up the candidacy." explains an attentive observer of European circles, close to the EPP, who believes that " a small
hundred (out of 264), "the number of Christian Democrat MPs who could flee the voting instructions (by being absent, abstaining or even voting against)". If the number of deputies
thus "volatile" can be specified, this pressure is real and explains why the leaders of the party did, in a way, the minimum service to support "their" candidate. "It must
to be Barroso because we are the first party, we won the elections and our candidate is Barroso". A bit short as a defense.

If we do a closer count, the only way for Barroso to have a (relative) majority would be to combine an alliance with the extreme right and the Eurosceptics: which could be
sufficient on paper but harmful politically and condemns, in fact, his candidacy (a President of the Commission elected with such a majority, and a significant abstention, would not have the
necessary legitimacy in a Europe where coalition government is the rule).

The wearing down of the candidate responds to Parliament's objective: to "become" the candidate of the Council. In fact, everyone knows that the candidate is worn out. Worn down by five years of presidency of the
European Commission where he did not show great dynamism in his function. Worn out in his political method: his chameleon side - " telling one « "I am for the market
free", to the other "I am for the economy", to the third "I am for solidarity" and to the fourth "I am for whatever you want" », as Verhofstadt so aptly puts it - lived!
Worn down above all by his monumental failure on the financial and economic crisis. Minimizing the facts until the last moment, when the crisis was known in full view of everyone, it was necessary
several more months to the European Commission to try to regain the initiative. Too late ! States had already acted, out of order. Result: in the economic field, which is the
very heart of the action of the European Commission, the latter found itself in tow forced to dress up in a European plan what was neither more nor less than twenty
national recovery (some States are on the verge of bankruptcy and we cannot speak of a recovery plan but of a survival plan). How can we continue to trust the fire watcher who has
seen the fires break out without giving the alarm and sent the Canadairs late?

A notion of power for the European Parliament. To all these causes intrinsic to the candidate is added a major fact, more political, of power between the European institutions, which
supplants all other aspects: by endorsing, without firing a shot, the candidate imposed by the Council, the newly elected European Parliament finds itself subservient to it. To mark his
autonomy, its political power, both in relation to the Heads of State and to the European Commission, the European Parliament is therefore required to "hand over" the candidate proposed by the Council. This concept
is fundamental. It's like pole position in a car rally. If Parliament does not do this, it loses some of its power. If he does, he can claim to hold his rank in relation to
to heads of government. 

Alternative candidates: they exist. The only solution now seems to be to find an honorable way out for JM Barroso. Two avenues are possible: 1) The post of Chairman of the Board
European Union for two and a half years - an idea that has been around for some time in European circles and which Dany Cohn-Bendit expressed publicly last week - or a return to Portugal,
the socialist government seems to be moving towards a possible defeat. And to find a replacement for him at the head of the European Commission. The main parties (liberal and socialist)
not arguing with the EPP for proposing another candidate. He has all summer to find the right personality likely to meet with the support of the 27 Heads of State and Government. And,
contrary to what some observers close to JM Barroso claim, there is no shortage of "good" candidates. Within the EPP alone: ​​a German like Minister of the Interior W. Schäuble,
an Austrian like former Prime Minister W. Schüssel (now a group leader in the Austrian parliament), a Dutchman like Prime Minister J. Balkendende or the former secretary
General of NATO J. De Hoop Scheffer... could make names likely to meet a certain adhesion.

(1) guy Verhofstadt, during a press conference at the European Parliament on July 15, recounts his career as follows: "I flirted with neoliberalism. Ten years ago I thought
that we could make the market without regulation. It took me ten years, but I am convinced today that a minimum of regulation is needed for the financial market. Adam Smith was already saying that for
to make a market work, you need rules. And we don't understand in Europe why we regulate milk and cars but not the financial market!"
of a financial supervisor.