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Members of the European Parliament, first complete table

To assess the composition of the groups in the European Parliament, I played the little game of “pie” using certain figures from the European Parliament. But by trying to make classifications, very very provisional. It is therefore rather an instantaneous, fragmentary image. But it gives a unique idea of ​​the issues. And the backstage battles which will take place during the following days (and undoubtedly until the plenary) behind the scenes of the
Parliament.

Attention ! Some connections are “authoritarian”: I thus divided the Italian Democratic Party into two equal parts (PES and Liberals, the final distribution could be different). Others are made according to indications given to me directly by the parties or individuals concerned, or by examining their program or their indication of sensitivity. This is the case with the Pirates' Party, the Estonian independent and British regionalists who could go to the Greens, the Finnish Christian Democrats to the EPP, the Russian minority to Gue, etc. The actual connections may be different. The hunt for “unattached” deputies has therefore begun. The stakes are high for several parties: to simply exist for the far right, to grow (Greens and Liberals), to avoid the plunge (Socialists), to aim for an absolute majority, with the support of another group (Christian Democrats), to follow or overtake the liberals (Eurosceptic conservatives).

A few lessons can be drawn from this:

1° The European Parliament is very clearly anchored on the right ideologically, 2/3 against 1/3 on the left

2° The PPE despite the defection of the conservative group obtains a third of the assembly. And he just needs a few votes to form a coalition with the Liberals with an absolute majority in Parliament. (to achieve this with the neo-conservatives, it is more difficult).

3° The new conservative group follows the Liberal group but does not reach it and therefore could not reach the place of third group in the assembly. Especially since I merged the former groups Id-Dem, Uen and the Eurosceptics of the PPe who are leaving it. But all these beautiful people risk having difficulty getting along (Ukip and Tories for example). The announced figure therefore appears to be a maximum. In my projection, this is the group that appears the most “crumbly”.

4° Theleft alternative proposed by Cohn-Bendit can be playable: Greens, Pse and Gue totaling approximately the same figure as the EPP. They therefore find themselves on an equal playing field. In this case, it is the Liberals and Democrats who have the key to the Alliances. If we follow an ideological line, there would be logic to the ALDE-PPE gathering. Unless the EPP prefers to play for tranquility and continuity, by choosing the alliance with the PSE. Which would be for the latter his only chance to exist... But also a bit like the kiss of
the death.

5° To counter Barroso it will be difficult – unless there is a clear majority of Christian Democrats (large groups (follow my look at the Franco-German couple) – because there is a clear conservative majority. And Barroso must certainly do more satisfy the Eurosceptics than other candidates.

6° Thefar right came close to the number of deputies to form a group (25) but failed to reach it. This even if Wim Wilders' Dutch Freedom Party supports it. It would in fact be necessary for the Italian Northern League to join – or obtain other rallies – to reach the minimum necessary figure. And even assuming that everyone gets along (which is another problem and weighed in the weighing against the group: we remember the discussions between the Germans and the French or more recently the “slamming” of the door of the Romanians after… racist insults from the Italians).

(NGV)

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).