Members of the European Parliament, first complete table
To assess the composition of the groups in the European Parliament, I played the little game of "pie"by taking up certain figures from the European Parliament. But by trying to make classifications, very very provisional. It is therefore rather an instantaneous, fragmented image. But it gives a singular idea of the issues. And the behind-the-scenes battles that will take place unfold over the following days (and no doubt until the plenary session) behind the scenes of the
Parliament.
Attention ! Some attachments are "authoritarian": I have thus divided the Italian Democratic Party into two equal parts (PES and Liberals, the final distribution could be different). Others are made according to the indications given to me directly by the parties or individuals concerned, or by examining their program or their indication of sensitivity. This is the case with the Pirates' Party, the Estonian independent and British regionalists who could go to the Greens, the Finnish Christian Democrats in the EPP, the Russian minority in Gue, and so on. The actual attachments may be different. The hunt for “unattached” deputies has therefore begun. The stakes are high for several parties: simply to exist for the extreme right, to grow (Greens and Liberals), to avoid the plunge (Socialists), to aim for an absolute majority, with the support of another group (Christian Democrats), to follow or overtake the Liberals (Eurosceptic Conservatives).
A few lessons can be drawn from this:
1° The European Parliament is very clearly anchored on the right ideologically, 2/3 against 1/3 on the left
2° The PPE in spite of the defection of the group of the conservatives obtains a third of the assembly. And he just needs a few votes to form a coalition with the Liberals with an absolute majority in Parliament. (to reach this one with the neo-conservatives, it is more difficult).
3° The new conservative group is hot on the heels of the Liberal group but does not reach it and could therefore not reach the place of third group in the assembly. Especially since I merged the old groups Id-Dem, Uen and the Eurosceptics of the EPP who are leaving it. But all these beautiful people may have trouble getting along (Ukip and Tories for example). The figure announced therefore seems to be a maximum. In my projection, this is the group that seems the most "friable".
4 ° Theleft alternative proposed by Cohn-Bendit can be playable: Greens, Pse and Gue totaling roughly the same figure as the EPP. They therefore find themselves on an equal footing. In this case, it is the Liberals and Democrats who have the key to the Alliances. If we follow an ideological line, there would be a logic to the ALDE-EPP rally. Unless the EPP prefers to play for peace and continuity, by choosing an alliance with the PSE. Which would be for the latter his only chance to exist... But also a little the kiss of
the death.
5° To counter Barroso it will be difficult - unless there is a clear majority of Christian Democrats (large groups (follow my gaze on the side of the Franco-German couple) - because there is a clear conservative majority. And Barroso must certainly do more satisfy Eurosceptics than other candidates.
6 ° Thefar right comes close to the number of deputies to form a group (25) but does not manage to reach it. This even if the Dutch Freedom Party of Wim Wilders rallies to it. In fact, the Italian Northern League would have to join - or obtain other rallies - to reach the minimum figure necessary. And even supposing that everyone gets along (which is another problem and weighed in the weighed against the group: we remember the discussions between the Germans and the French or more recently the "slamming" of the door of the Romanians after racist insults from the Italians).
(NGV)
