NATO seeks to remedy its stalemate in Afghanistan

(BRUSSELS2) Even if other topics are under discussion, it is around Afghanistan, where the Alliance's main military operation has been taking place since 2003, that the debates at the NATO summit in Strasbourg will revolve. Baden-Baden. While the West has more than 70 men on site (000 from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and 57.000 men from the anti-terrorist operation " Enduring Freedom », including 38.000 Americans), and that no large country supports the Taliban, they defeat the coalition.

The fear of failure and the recall of (Soviet) history

Even if no one wants to admit it, the concern is great in the European ranks, especially since no one sees a way out. " VS'is very difficult to say when the operation will be completed » confided to me recently an ambassador of the Political and Security Committee of the EU, whose vigor of his Atlanticist commitment cannot be suspected. " If the United States really sends the troops, we will have the same contingent as at the time of the Soviet intervention... And even, if we take into consideration the equipment and training of our soldiers, we will have double of troops. And we still can't tell when we'll have control of the situation ».

The number of military deaths reached a peak in 2008 with nearly one death per day and this trend continues (294 deaths in 2008 and 78 in the first months of 2009 according to the independent site icasualties.org). Afghan army and police casualties are greater. " The Taliban's main target is no longer the army but the police explains an Alliance diplomat. " I lose 5 cops a day explained the Afghan Interior Minister during a meeting with Alliance officials. As for civilians, they are mostly affected. 38 aid workers were killed and 147 were kidnapped in 2008, according to the United Nations. And 2118 Afghan civilians died in 2008.

A new strategy

The new American strategy aims, as in Iraq, first to strengthen the international military presence, so as to offer a sufficient level of security, as taught by all the counter-insurgency manuals, written with the examples of Vietnam or from Algeria. It also intends to support this military effort with an identical civilian effort, in order, on the one hand, to train the Afghan security forces more quickly and aggressively and, on the other hand, to enable the country to develop more rapidly, by sending more engineers or doctors.

Finally, it intends to reach out to certain Taliban groups, so that they leave the armed opposition and join the central government. The objective of the NATO Summit is to obtain contributions from all member states, and others, either in manpower (soldiers, police trainers, development agents) or in cash. The idea developed at NATO is to ask all the States – which are not members of the Alliance and which are not taking part in the operation (Japan, China, Arab countries of the Gulf, etc.) – but interested in stabilizing the Afghanistan to fund these civilian training and development missions.

Military reinforcements

The Americans have decided to increase their numbers. Barack Obama has thus given the green light to send around 20 additional men (combat troops, aviation and logisticians) this year. And the army is still asking for 000 additional men. This effort can only be shared in a modest and temporary way by the Europeans – who, together with the other partners of the Alliance, already form almost half of the troops present. Around 10 men have already been pledged (000 Germans, 2000 Italians, 600 Poles, 500 Finns, 400 Belgians…), most of them temporarily to cover the presidential elections in August. The objective of the summit is to increase these offers of participation. But without hope. " We really can't do much moreconfides a European ambassador. The British and the French must in particular specify their contribution to this effort. The Americans seem well aware of these limits and are asking the Europeans to be more present on the civilian front.

Boosting the Afghan police

According to NATO officials, the objective would be to be able to have Afghan security forces in sufficient numbers and sufficiently trained to be able to take charge of their security: 200 for the army, 000 for the police, i.e. 200.000 men in all. Which is far more than what exists today (about 400.000 soldiers and 80.000 police) and even what is officially announced (a government project aims to increase the army to 80.000 men) and represents a cost of several billion euros per year. It is also a question of reorienting the training of the police. According to a NATO soldier, the training of the police has been conceived too much as a civilian neighborhood force, a judicial police force. However, between the army proper and the police, there is a lack of units capable not only of maintaining public order, but also of ensuring their own protection and that of civilians, in a muscular way. For example in the event of an attack in the villages or to react in the event of an ambush ". Basically, a military police force, of the gendarmerie type, like France had in Algeria in the 1950s (an experiment observed under the magnifying glass by General Petraeus, commander of the American forces in Iraq).

The European Gendarmerie in action

It is within this framework that the European Gendarmerie Force (EGF), a multinational force in which six countries participate (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Romania) could be used. These gendarmes would be deployed in areas where the country's soldiers are already deployed in order to form an Afghan gendarmerie. Command authority remains unclear"They would be both under the European flag of the FGE and inside the Isaf", the international force under NATO command, according to Bernard Kouchner, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, promoter of this idea. About 400 gendarmes, mainly French and Italians, could participate in the operation. But not all are very enthusiastic.

On the Spanish side, in particular, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Miguel Angel Moratinos thus declared according to what AFP relays " continue to discuss the modalities because so far it has not been clearly defined what the role and the rules of engagement of this deployment of the European gendarmerie in Afghanistan will be ". This proposal also comes at an angle to the EU's initiative to train the Afghan police. It's starting to get a bit messy, even if the objective and the means used remain justifiable...

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde

(article originally published in Europolitics)