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Will the Czechs ratify the Lisbon Treaty?

(BRUSSELS2) I do not share the prevailing pessimism about the possible ratification of the Lisbon Treaty by the Czech Republic – which is currently being developed by certain European politicians, and taken up on a loop by several colleagues -. The situation is no worse in Prague than a few months ago. It would even be better for the Lisbon Treaty, for at least three or four reasons:

1) A first step towards ratification was crossed on Thursday (March 19), with the vote by the Chamber of Deputies of a regulation, which puts a lock to prevent the government from transferring national competences to the European Union, without the agreement of the two chambers of Parliament. an understated fact. And yet it was one of the conditions set by the ODS (Christian Democrats) for the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

2) The majority who overthrew Topolanek – even if it brings together Eurosceptics (the faithful of Klaus and the Communists) – is overwhelmingly in favor of the Lisbon Treaty (dissident Greens and the Social Democrats of the CSSD). This is a condition set by the CSSD for its support for the transitional government.

3) The ABM Radar Treaty was removed from the agenda by the Topolanek government – ​​fearing a complete refusal on the basis of the same majority that eventually overthrew it elsewhere (some ODS close to Klaus being absent or apparently sick, even them).

4) Finally, there is a more psychological element, the effect of which is difficult to assess. The Czechs will need restore their international image, their European coat of arms, to at least have a positive asset at the end of the EU presidency. Failing that, the last European Summit chaired by the Czechs, in June, which was to take stock of the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, could leave the impression of a failure and of one of the worst presidencies that the EU may have had for years and, above all, on the Czechs' inability to claim positions of international responsibility.

The situation is therefore no worse in Prague than it was two months ago. It would even be better. There is therefore perhaps a chance that this Treaty will be voted on sooner than expected.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).