If the trend is confirmed in the EP, Barroso is not sure of the 2nd mandate

(B2) The renewal of the Portuguese José-Manuel Barroso in his post as President of the European Commission for a second term, given as certain, at the beginning of January by certain commentators, is no longer really acquired by looking at political developments in Europe. Whatever the procedure used (Treaty of Nice or Lisbon), the President of the European Commission is, in fact, appointed by the Heads of State and Government but he must also be dubbed by the European Parliament from the ballot box. To ignore the democratic configuration is to take a certain risk of censorship. The Buttiglione episode in 2004 proved this when the prospective Italian commissioner was ejected for what he thought was a “good” word against homosexuals and nearly dragged the Commission down with him.

Heads of government at work. If many heads of government said in early January that they wanted to support Barroso. Many of them immediately added: "for the moment" A candidate for lack of anything better. Especially since local or general elections are looming in several countries (Germany, Belgium, Bulgaria, Latvia, etc.) which could change the situation. The former right-wing Portuguese Prime Minister did not, however, fail in the mission entrusted to him by the Heads of Government in 2004: to weaken the Commission and facilitate agreements between governments. No one wanted a new “Delors”, “Santer” or even “Prodi” who, each in their own way, wanted to assert the independence of “Brussels”. But this strategy has shown these limits, in particular with the lack of reaction in the financial, economic and social turmoil tomorrow that marks Europe. Thus, including within his political family, the European People's Party (EPP), the one who was close to Bush seems to belong to the past. And the reconstituted German couple, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, seem determined to push for an alternative. The real-false candidacy of the Dutch Prime Minister, Jan-Pieter Balkenende is therefore not due to chance and looks more like a trial balloon.

The European Parliament as arbiter. In the European Parliament, it is difficult to determine 100 days before the elections what will be the majority resulting from the ballot boxes. Especially since the number of deputies will change, going from 785 to 736. But according to the first projections that I made for the Letter of Expansion, based on national polls, even if these vary brutally from from day to day, we observe a relative stability of the major groups: Christian Democrats in the EPP, Social Democrats in the PSE, Centrists and Liberals in the ALDE. Losses in one country offset gains in another. The EPP could keep its title of first group. But will the advance be as clear as today? Especially if the British Tories, the Czechs of the ODS and other Eurosceptics decide to form a separate group. The PES - despite an expected poor score in Italy and Hungary - is not crumbling as expected. There are two reasons for this: in 2004, the score was so bad in the United Kingdom and in Germany that it is difficult to repeat it. And the “economic crisis” effect works in favor of the Socialists. On the other hand, the movement takes place at the extremes. The thrust of the Ultra-left is clear in all countries (+ 10/15 seats). While on the far right and among the populists, it is more confused. The relative fall of the PiS (Law and Justice of the Kaczynski brothers) in Poland and of the UKIP in the United Kingdom, two large countries (therefore with many MPs), could relativize the arrival of Libertas which remains confined to small countries. At least, for now. These developments have one constant: the EPP, essential in any alliance within Parliament, could lose this monopoly. An alternative going from the center to the ultra-left becomes possible. At least on paper. This puts the Liberals or the Socialists in a position of strength. And further weakens Barroso's chances of being nominated. The leaders of the current groups: the German Schulz (PSE), the British Watson (ALDE) and the Franco-German Cohn-Bendit do not carry the current President of the Commission in their hearts.

(NGV)