After the Irish No, what to do?

(B2) As long as there is no agreement from the 27 Member States, the Treaty of Lisbon is not applicable. It is unavoidable. Several solutions: from the impossible to the probable…
• Take Ireland out of Europe? Impossible. Admittedly, from a strict point of view of international law, Ireland, and it alone, can decide to denounce the European treaties. But it is inapplicable in practice, the European economies are too integrated. No one seriously thinks about it.
• Completely write a new treaty? Possible in theory, impossible in practice. After three years spent drafting a constitutional treaty and two years drafting the Lisbon Treaty, people's minds are a bit exhausted and out of solutions… Moreover, there is no legal void. Because the Treaties of Rome and Maastricht - amended in Nice in 2000 - continue to apply.
• Burying the Lisbon Treaty? Useless. This text is not perishable, as of January 1, 2009. This date was given for information only. The rule is that it comes into force once all the ratifications of the 27 Member States have been registered in Rome (it is indeed Italy which is the depositary of the Community treaties). So there is no urgency...
• Continue the ratification process? Quite possible. Because each State is master of its ratification process. And the atmosphere is not the same as in 2005: no other referendum is planned. Even Gordon Brown's United Kingdom seems determined to pursue ratification. Only the Czech Republic – with its Eurosceptic President Vaclav Klaus – is reluctant.
• Make the Irish vote again? Possible. This option is being seriously considered by the Irish Prime Minister and his European counterparts. Two conditions: Ireland must be the only and last country not to ratify. A series of derogations must be negotiated on certain issues (defence, fundamental rights, etc.). Which takes a bit of work and time.
• French priorities? They don't change completely. Admittedly, “morale” takes a hit. But the “climate package”, the “pact on immigration” and even the reinforcement of the defense policy can be carried out, to a large extent, on the basis of the existing treaties. It is even possible - if the 27 are unanimous - to permanently abolish the right of veto on certain issues: legal immigration, taxation or social Europe...
• Who will govern Europe in 2009? As planned, elections to the European Parliament will take place in June and a new European Commission will have to be set up in the autumn. The only difficulty: it will no longer include one representative per Member State but will have to be reduced. Which will not be easy to conceive! It will also be necessary to appoint a new High Representative for Foreign Affairs, who will have less power than expected. As for the presidency of the European Council, it will continue to be held on a rotating basis by each member state (no president of Europe).

(NGV)