Brief blog

The demographic revolution is reshuffling the political map of Europe

(B2) Demographic changes over the next few years would lead to geopolitical upheaval in Europe, according to a investigation report of the World Population Foundation (DSW Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung), a German NGO. By 2050, Germany will have lost all of its demographic advantage, acquired during reunification with the former GDR. It will find itself almost on par with France and the United Kingdom, with around 70 million inhabitants. It will then be difficult to justify the bonus of twenty MEPs. And the current controversy over Germanic supremacy and the double majority, driven especially by Poland, will no longer have any reason to exist. As for Italy, it would fall significantly from the leading group at 55 million inhabitants. The Poles would also be largely victims of this development. In 2050, Poland will no longer be able to claim to play in the big leagues. At 30 million inhabitants, it would be a third less populated than Spain, at 45 million. The cause is the low local birth rate and the lack of legal immigration. Generally speaking, Eastern Europe will be the big loser from this demographic “revolution” while the Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Denmark, etc.) will do well. Even in the category of Lilliputian states, the change is notable, Luxembourg, benefiting from sustained population growth, would join Montenegro in distancing Malta and Cyprus. In the neighborhood of Europe, the upheaval is also notable: while Turkey would reach 90 million inhabitants, Russia would plummet from 140 to 110 million inhabitants.

 (NGV)

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).