Everyone a winner? pink, blue and black wave on the new Parliament
(B2 archives) They keep their fingers crossed, admit they don't look at the polls, don't want to say a word lest they be wrong. But their hopes transpire.
The Socialists (PSE) like the Dutch on Thursday, hope to consolidate the successes they are reaping in several countries over the ballots. France, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, etc. many countries would see themselves surfing the Spanish pink wave.
The PES could approach the 30% mark, thus approaching its eternal rival, the conservatives of the European People's Party (PPE) who are 6 or 7 points ahead. They should therefore keep their place as the leading political group in Parliament. Unless the defections are too much felt.
The Liberals are on the rise. In addition to a few seats gleaned from here and there, they could also benefit from significant transfers. The UDF of François Bayrou, several elements of the list of Olivier supported by Romano Prodi in Italy, the Catalans have made no secret of their intention to leave the EPP, considered too cautious on Europe, and to form thus, with the Liberals, a pivotal, centrist and pro-European group.
According to the latest forecasts, the Green and Communists would crumble.
THEfar right and the sovereignists will undoubtedly be the other winners of this election. The National Front could finally realize its dream: to form a political group. To do this, he needs to bring together 16 deputies from 5 different countries. Goal within reach. The only unknown: the capacity of the nationalist parties, strongly divided, to ally themselves or even to aggregate other eurosceptics.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde) - Published in France-Soir, June 2004
Group | Communists (GUE) | Socialists (PES) | GREENS | Liberals | Conservatives (EPP) | Sovereignists | Far right | Not registered |
1999 | 8% | 28% | 7% | 8% | 37% | 7% | 0% | 5% |
2004 | 7% | 30% | 5% | 13% | 36% | 5% | 5% | 1% |
Overall 23 p.m. | PPE | PSE | ELDR | GUE | GREENS | UEN | ESD | NI | ExtDte | |
Forecasts | mini | 247 | 189 | 54 | 30 | 39 | 22 | 16 | 77 | |
Forecasts | maxi | 277 | 209 | 70 | 40 | 49 | 30 | 22 | 93 | |
% min | 33,7% | 25,8% | 7,4% | 4,1% | 5,3% | 3,0% | 2,2% | 10,5% | ||
% max | 37,8% | 28,6% | 9,6% | 5,5% | 6,7% | 4,1% | 3,0% | 12,7% |